The Survey projected growth rate of 7-7.75 per cent for 2016-17 with downside risks due to weak global economic scenario.
The ongoing key reforms such as sops for manufacturing, easier labour laws, wooing FDI inflows and privatisation will help improve productivity and support long-term growth at 7.5-8 per cent levels, which if played out well, can help India contribute 15 per cent of global GDP growth by FY2026, says a report. According to a report pencilled by the India economist at UBS Securities, Tanvee Gupta Jain, the country has the lowest manufacturing costs among peers, even though China retains significant ecosystem advantages and despite that India and Vietnam appear most likely to benefit from a shift out of China.
After unseasonal rains, supply disruptions and pandemic-induced woes pushed retail inflation well over the Reserve Bank's comfort zone in 2020, the scenario is likely to stay that way at least in the short term as economic recovery slowly gains foothold. For most part of this year, pricier food items pushed the retail inflation, based on Consumer Price Index (CPI), higher in the range of 6.58-7.61 per cent, except for March when the reading was 5.91 per cent. Experts believe retail inflation is likely to average around 6.3 per cent this fiscal and mostly will remain sticky going forward owing to pick-up in demand across sectors.
Analysts say the RBI could resume tightening monetary policy by early next year should inflation remain high, even as the economy is growing below the decade low of 5 percent posted in the fiscal year ending in March.
As if wanting to be an antidote to the coronavirus pandemic, the Indian stock market adorned carnival robes in 2021 with a tsunami of liquidity unleashed by global central banks coupled with supportive domestic policies and the world's largest vaccination drive sparking off a world-beating rally on Dalal Street, despite bouts of uneasiness over fizzy valuations. While the wider economy shuttled between recovery and relapse, dictated by multiple mutations of the virus, equity market benchmarks appeared headed in just one direction -- skywards. The dizzying upward journey has added a whopping Rs 72 lakh crore during 2021 to investors' wealth, measured as the cumulative value of all listed shares in the country, taking it to nearly Rs 260 lakh crore.
'The kind of tax which will be generated from the second pillar may far outweigh what we may be losing in the first pillar.'
With no rate cuts on the table, the other monetary policy alternative could be to reduce the width of the asymmetric policy corridor or increase in reverse repo rate when the pandemic subsides, they opined.
IMF's Chief Economist Gita Gopinath on Thursday said it would be damaging for India to start tightening policy support in the midst of the COVID-19 pandemic and also stressed on reducing wasteful expenditures in the upcoming Budget. Delivering NCAER's '9th C D Deshmukh Lecture' virtually, Gopinath said there is scope for the Indian government to provide more direct support to people.
13 eminent economists, including former RBI governor Raghuram Rajan and current International Monetary Fund Chief Economist Gita Gopinath, in a report have asked the political establishment not to resort to populist tricks.
Delay in the tapering of the $85 billion-a-month bond buyback programme by the US Fed (tapering will start from January 1) gave the country time to replenish the forex reserves and rein in the high current account gap.
While the situation Sitharaman finds herself in may not be that good, how does it stack up against her three immediate predecessors Pranab Mukherjee, P Chidambaram and the late Arun Jaitley?
Is the worst over for Indian banks? The past two years saw them ride on treasury trades as deposits soared and credit growth dipped sharply. Gross and net non-performing assets (NPAs) moved south, and the provision coverage ratio (PCR), capital buffers, and profitability indicators are back at pre-pandemic levels. So, what's the plot ahead?
The Bengaluru-based company had registered a net profit (after minority interest) of Rs 5,197 crore a year ago, a regulatory filing said. Infosys' revenue grew 22.9 per cent to Rs 31,867 crore in the quarter ended December 2021 from Rs 25,927 crore in the year-ago period, it added.
'... the government provides adequate cash and kind support for the poorest of the poor for survival... ...conditional cash and skilling support for the economically poor to raise their incomes to adequate levels... ...and make functional arrangements for providing unemployment allowance to the vulnerable poor during disasters like the present one.'
RBI expects the growth in the next fiscal to strengthen gradually, notwithstanding the significant headwinds.
'We still need a certain number of large public sector banks for financial inclusion and stability purposes.'
Crisil said the next fiscal could be a year of new leadership and old challenges.
In 2009, FinMin proposed to move regulators' reserves into public account. These accounts were finally opened in 2013-14. However, no funds have been deposited in it so far.
Delivering a public speech hours after the RBI launched a rescue act for Yes Bank on March 6, Governor Shaktikanta Das reiterated the RBI's affirmation to do whatever was needed to combat the coronavirus impact. On that day, India had only one confirmed COVID-19 infection, the World Health Organisation was five days off from declaring it as a pandemic and the financially debilitating lockdowns were not even on the horizon. Das' promise on efforts to mitigate COVID-19 impact appeared as a footnote in news reports from the event.
'If you do quick back-of-the-envelope calculation, someone earning Rs 10 lakh can get a benefit of anywhere between Rs 35,000 and Rs 45,000, even if s/he is availing exemptions.' 'A large proportion of people do not avail full exemptions as they don't have money to invest in those schemes.'
The RBI left key policy rates unchanged and cut the GDP growth estimate for this fiscal to 5.5 per cent from 5.7 per cent.
The GST Council also decided that a committee of officers will be constituted to examine the simplification of forms for annual return and reconciliation statement.
The G-20 leaders under the chairmanship of Saudi Arabia's King Salman held an extraordinary video conference in which they resolved to use all available policy tools to minimise the economic and social damage from the pandemic that has killed over 21,000 people and infected more than 470,000 globally.
The BJP still does not have a majority in Upper House of Parliament, the Rajya Sabha, and this will pose hurdles to the party's legislative reform agenda
Gokarn was the first Indian central banker who regularised warnings to the government, through the monetary policy statement, on the need to reduce fiscal deficit.
With nearly 100 countries closing national borders during the past month, the movement of people and tourism flows have come to a screeching halt. The contraction could be even higher if governments fail to provide income support and help boost consumer spending.
The central bank held the cash reserve ratio at 4 per cent.
"India's economy is projected to sustain a 7.6 per cent growth rate in both fiscal years 2016-17 and 2017-18," says the year-end update of the flagship report Economic and Social Survey for Asia and the Pacific 2016 of the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP).
Signs of recovery in Spain and commitment from Germany must be met with the willingness to let the euro fall.
Subbarao's remarks come against the backdrop of Finance Minister P Chidambaram's assertions in recent weeks that RBI should not focus solely on containing inflation but also look at the larger mandate of growth and job creation.
Market players said the sell-off was triggered by pessimism that the government may not be able to balance growth with macro-stability.
The 48-odd million employees covered by the Employees Provident Fund Organisation (EPFO) may be touched that the finance ministry is actually considering a proposal to extend the organisation a fiscal helping hand to offer a rate of interest comparable with other savings instruments.
Prime Minister's key economic advisor C Rangarajan on Friday lowered the growth forecast for the current fiscal to 5.3 per cent from 6.4 per cent projected earlier and listed out host of measures including further liberalisation of foreign direct investment norms to improve economic condition.
There is so much liquidity in the system, in the global economy, and that's why the stock market is very buoyant. It will certainly witness correction in the future: RBI's Das.
India's banking system is stable and can withstand global shocks, but there are weak spots like decelerating growth and rising fiscal deficit which need to be addressed, said a Reserve Bank report.
'The fiscal deficit target of 3.9 per cent of GDP seems achievable.'
Government on Tuesday made it clear that full float of rupee would be allowed only after putting in place a regulatory mechanism to ensure financial stability and creating congenial atmosphere like containing revenue and fiscal deficits.
Growth in the Asia-Pacific region will be low, the aqency said
Focus will, however, shift back to corporate earnings, liquidity situation and global events - specially crude price.
'The Reserve Bank's independence has remained a work in progress, an enduring challenge that the nation has been grappling with on an ongoing basis,' says RBI Deputy Governor Dr Viral Acharya.
